Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于36–39 34.7%
44人及以上 31.3%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 交易量
$56,541 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
12%
32–35
<1%
36–39
31%
40–43
38%
44人及以上
31%
36–39 34.7%
44人及以上 31.3%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 交易量
$56,541 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
$3,907 交易量
<1%
24–27
$18,964 交易量
<1%
28–31
$21,831 交易量
12%
32–35
$4,611 交易量
<1%
36–39
$2,548 交易量
31%
40–43
$2,077 交易量
38%
44人及以上
$2,602 交易量
31%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$56,541结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$56,541结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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