As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.6%
44人及以上 2.3%
$71,865 交易量
$71,865 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
5%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44人及以上
2%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.6%
44人及以上 2.3%
$71,865 交易量
$71,865 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
$6,266 交易量
1%
24–27
$20,164 交易量
2%
28–31
$23,648 交易量
1%
32–35
$6,174 交易量
5%
36–39
$8,153 交易量
83%
40–43
$3,871 交易量
6%
44人及以上
$3,589 交易量
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$71,865结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$71,865结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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