Republican House incumbents faced limited primary challenges in 2026, with defeats concentrated in a handful of races shaped by targeted endorsements, internal divisions, and isolated scandals rather than a broad anti-incumbent surge. Confirmed losses include Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, Andy Ogles, and Cory Mills, aligning with historical patterns of 3-6 total Republican primary defeats in typical cycles absent major redistricting waves. Trader consensus on the 4-6 range reflects this contained turnover, as most incumbents advanced with minimal opposition. Outcomes could shift only if unresolved runoffs or late contests produce additional defeats, though structural factors like low challenger funding and party cohesion make exceeding six losses improbable before general election resolution.