**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with trader consensus heavily favoring a total of three losses overall.** Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas were defeated by Trump-endorsed challengers—Julia Letlow advancing in Louisiana’s May primary and Ken Paxton prevailing in Texas—reflecting intra-party dynamics tied to past impeachment votes and alignment with the former president. These outcomes, occurring earlier in the cycle, have established a baseline of two defeats, while remaining primaries for other GOP incumbents such as Bill Hagerty in Tennessee appear less contested based on current filing and polling patterns. The strong weighting toward exactly three losses incorporates the possibility of one additional upset in later August contests, consistent with historical rates of primary challenges in midterm cycles and the influence of endorsements on voter turnout in Republican primaries. No further defeats have materialized in recent weeks, keeping probabilities stable around this level.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3 81.5%
4 8.7%
2 6.3%
>4 2.8%
$55,038 交易量
$55,038 交易量
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
6%
3
82%
4
9%
>4
3%
3 81.5%
4 8.7%
2 6.3%
>4 2.8%
$55,038 交易量
$55,038 交易量
0
$4,221 交易量
<1%
1
$3,323 交易量
<1%
2
$30,777 交易量
6%
3
$8,049 交易量
82%
4
$4,614 交易量
9%
>4
$4,054 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with trader consensus heavily favoring a total of three losses overall.** Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas were defeated by Trump-endorsed challengers—Julia Letlow advancing in Louisiana’s May primary and Ken Paxton prevailing in Texas—reflecting intra-party dynamics tied to past impeachment votes and alignment with the former president.
These outcomes, occurring earlier in the cycle, have established a baseline of two defeats, while remaining primaries for other GOP incumbents such as Bill Hagerty in Tennessee appear less contested based on current filing and polling patterns. The strong weighting toward exactly three losses incorporates the possibility of one additional upset in later August contests, consistent with historical rates of primary challenges in midterm cycles and the influence of endorsements on voter turnout in Republican primaries. No further defeats have materialized in recent weeks, keeping probabilities stable around this level.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
交易量
$55,038市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with trader consensus heavily favoring a total of three losses overall.** Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas were defeated by Trump-endorsed challengers—Julia Letlow advancing in Louisiana’s May primary and Ken Paxton prevailing in Texas—reflecting intra-party dynamics tied to past impeachment votes and alignment with the former president.
These outcomes, occurring earlier in the cycle, have established a baseline of two defeats, while remaining primaries for other GOP incumbents such as Bill Hagerty in Tennessee appear less contested based on current filing and polling patterns. The strong weighting toward exactly three losses incorporates the possibility of one additional upset in later August contests, consistent with historical rates of primary challenges in midterm cycles and the influence of endorsements on voter turnout in Republican primaries. No further defeats have materialized in recent weeks, keeping probabilities stable around this level.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$55,038市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Two Republican Senate incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries, with trader consensus heavily favoring a total of three losses overall.** Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas were defeated by Trump-endorsed challengers—Julia Letlow advancing in Louisiana’s May primary and Ken Paxton prevailing in Texas—reflecting intra-party dynamics tied to past impeachment votes and alignment with the former president. These outcomes, occurring earlier in the cycle, have established a baseline of two defeats, while remaining primaries for other GOP incumbents such as Bill Hagerty in Tennessee appear less contested based on current filing and polling patterns. The strong weighting toward exactly three losses incorporates the possibility of one additional upset in later August contests, consistent with historical rates of primary challenges in midterm cycles and the influence of endorsements on voter turnout in Republican primaries. No further defeats have materialized in recent weeks, keeping probabilities stable around this level.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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