Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$19,035 交易量
$19,035 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
$19,035 交易量
$19,035 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,276 交易量
86%
民主党
$4,758 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$19,035结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,035结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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