The NY-24 district's rural counties along Lake Ontario deliver a consistent Republican advantage, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Claudia Tenney's 65.7 percent victory margin in 2024. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 83.5 percent implied probability because no Democratic primary candidate has yet shown the fundraising or name recognition needed to overcome this structural edge ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 primary will finalize both parties' nominees, but current polling and historical turnout patterns in this solidly Republican seat continue to anchor market pricing near the upper end of historical midterm hold rates for similar districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
84%
民主党
17%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,130 交易量
84%
民主党
$1,750 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-24 district's rural counties along Lake Ontario deliver a consistent Republican advantage, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Claudia Tenney's 65.7 percent victory margin in 2024. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 83.5 percent implied probability because no Democratic primary candidate has yet shown the fundraising or name recognition needed to overcome this structural edge ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 primary will finalize both parties' nominees, but current polling and historical turnout patterns in this solidly Republican seat continue to anchor market pricing near the upper end of historical midterm hold rates for similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$3,880结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-24 district's rural counties along Lake Ontario deliver a consistent Republican advantage, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Claudia Tenney's 65.7 percent victory margin in 2024. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 83.5 percent implied probability because no Democratic primary candidate has yet shown the fundraising or name recognition needed to overcome this structural edge ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 primary will finalize both parties' nominees, but current polling and historical turnout patterns in this solidly Republican seat continue to anchor market pricing near the upper end of historical midterm hold rates for similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,880结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-24 district's rural counties along Lake Ontario deliver a consistent Republican advantage, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Claudia Tenney's 65.7 percent victory margin in 2024. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 83.5 percent implied probability because no Democratic primary candidate has yet shown the fundraising or name recognition needed to overcome this structural edge ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 primary will finalize both parties' nominees, but current polling and historical turnout patterns in this solidly Republican seat continue to anchor market pricing near the upper end of historical midterm hold rates for similar districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题