Michael Alfonso leads the WI-07 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability ahead of the August 11 contest for the open seat vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany. Trump’s January 2026 endorsement, combined with Alfonso’s ties to former district Rep. Sean Duffy and substantial early fundraising supported by affiliated PAC spending, has consolidated much of the party establishment and voter attention behind the 26-year-old media producer. The remaining field—Niina Baum, Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, and Don Raihala—trails in the mid-teens or lower, reflecting limited name recognition and resources in a crowded primary. Recent polling and debate participation have not produced measurable shifts, leaving Alfonso’s advantages from high-profile backing and organizational support as the dominant factors in current trader consensus.