The strong Democratic lean of New York's 26th congressional district, combined with incumbent Tim Kennedy's reelection bid, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 90 percent. Kennedy secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+11. Recent primary filings show limited Republican opposition, while Democratic structures remain stable ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican surge, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest such factors rarely overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,405 交易量
$24,405 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
$24,405 交易量
$24,405 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,910 交易量
91%
共和党
$11,495 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York's 26th congressional district, combined with incumbent Tim Kennedy's reelection bid, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 90 percent. Kennedy secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+11. Recent primary filings show limited Republican opposition, while Democratic structures remain stable ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican surge, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest such factors rarely overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$24,405结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York's 26th congressional district, combined with incumbent Tim Kennedy's reelection bid, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 90 percent. Kennedy secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+11. Recent primary filings show limited Republican opposition, while Democratic structures remain stable ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican surge, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest such factors rarely overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,405结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New York's 26th congressional district, combined with incumbent Tim Kennedy's reelection bid, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 90 percent. Kennedy secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024, and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+11. Recent primary filings show limited Republican opposition, while Democratic structures remain stable ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican surge, candidate health issues, or major scandals could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest such factors rarely overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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