**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$3,507,279 交易量
$3,507,279 交易量
2026-11-03
$3,507,279 交易量
$3,507,279 交易量
2026-11-03
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026.
However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$3,507,279结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026.
However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,507,279结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题