The upcoming October 2026 general election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency has positioned incumbent Denis Bećirović as the narrow leader in the Bosniak seat race, with traders assigning him a 49.5% implied probability amid a fragmented Bosniak electorate. Bećirović, representing the Social Democratic Party, draws support from his current role and established national profile, while Bakir Izetbegović at 39.0% benefits from his leadership of the Party of Democratic Action and prior presidency tenure from 2010 to 2018. Semir Efendić trails at 13.5%, reflecting his more localized base as mayor of Novi Grad Sarajevo and head of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, though recent confirmation of his candidacy has highlighted the competitive dynamics. The May announcement of the election date and Izetbegović’s entry have reinforced this three-way contest, with traders viewing the split in Bosniak party support as the primary driver keeping probabilities fluid ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的下一任波什尼亚克族总统？
波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的下一任波什尼亚克族总统？
Denis Bećirović 50%
巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇 39%
Semir Efendić 14%
$12,113 交易量
$12,113 交易量
2026-10-04
Denis Bećirović
50%
巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇
39%
Semir Efendić
14%
Denis Bećirović 50%
巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇 39%
Semir Efendić 14%
$12,113 交易量
$12,113 交易量
2026-10-04
Denis Bećirović
$4,463 交易量
50%
巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇
$4,089 交易量
39%
Semir Efendić
$3,561 交易量
14%
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming October 2026 general election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency has positioned incumbent Denis Bećirović as the narrow leader in the Bosniak seat race, with traders assigning him a 49.5% implied probability amid a fragmented Bosniak electorate. Bećirović, representing the Social Democratic Party, draws support from his current role and established national profile, while Bakir Izetbegović at 39.0% benefits from his leadership of the Party of Democratic Action and prior presidency tenure from 2010 to 2018. Semir Efendić trails at 13.5%, reflecting his more localized base as mayor of Novi Grad Sarajevo and head of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, though recent confirmation of his candidacy has highlighted the competitive dynamics. The May announcement of the election date and Izetbegović’s entry have reinforced this three-way contest, with traders viewing the split in Bosniak party support as the primary driver keeping probabilities fluid ahead of the vote.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$12,113结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming October 2026 general election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency has positioned incumbent Denis Bećirović as the narrow leader in the Bosniak seat race, with traders assigning him a 49.5% implied probability amid a fragmented Bosniak electorate. Bećirović, representing the Social Democratic Party, draws support from his current role and established national profile, while Bakir Izetbegović at 39.0% benefits from his leadership of the Party of Democratic Action and prior presidency tenure from 2010 to 2018. Semir Efendić trails at 13.5%, reflecting his more localized base as mayor of Novi Grad Sarajevo and head of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, though recent confirmation of his candidacy has highlighted the competitive dynamics. The May announcement of the election date and Izetbegović’s entry have reinforced this three-way contest, with traders viewing the split in Bosniak party support as the primary driver keeping probabilities fluid ahead of the vote.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$12,113结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming October 2026 general election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency has positioned incumbent Denis Bećirović as the narrow leader in the Bosniak seat race, with traders assigning him a 49.5% implied probability amid a fragmented Bosniak electorate. Bećirović, representing the Social Democratic Party, draws support from his current role and established national profile, while Bakir Izetbegović at 39.0% benefits from his leadership of the Party of Democratic Action and prior presidency tenure from 2010 to 2018. Semir Efendić trails at 13.5%, reflecting his more localized base as mayor of Novi Grad Sarajevo and head of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, though recent confirmation of his candidacy has highlighted the competitive dynamics. The May announcement of the election date and Izetbegović’s entry have reinforced this three-way contest, with traders viewing the split in Bosniak party support as the primary driver keeping probabilities fluid ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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