Redistricting has fundamentally altered Utah's 1st congressional district by shifting its boundaries to encompass most of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City and surrounding urban areas, creating a seat without an incumbent. This change produced a district that favored Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 24 points in 2024, establishing a structural advantage reflected in current trader consensus. Democrat Ben McAdams, a former representative, secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary and will face Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. The resulting implied probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's new partisan composition and historical voting patterns in the included population centers. A major shift would require exceptional Republican turnout or unforeseen events altering the baseline dynamics before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,957 交易量
$36,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$36,957 交易量
$36,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,600 交易量
95%
共和党
$31,357 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has fundamentally altered Utah's 1st congressional district by shifting its boundaries to encompass most of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City and surrounding urban areas, creating a seat without an incumbent. This change produced a district that favored Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 24 points in 2024, establishing a structural advantage reflected in current trader consensus. Democrat Ben McAdams, a former representative, secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary and will face Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. The resulting implied probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's new partisan composition and historical voting patterns in the included population centers. A major shift would require exceptional Republican turnout or unforeseen events altering the baseline dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$36,957结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has fundamentally altered Utah's 1st congressional district by shifting its boundaries to encompass most of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City and surrounding urban areas, creating a seat without an incumbent. This change produced a district that favored Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 24 points in 2024, establishing a structural advantage reflected in current trader consensus. Democrat Ben McAdams, a former representative, secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary and will face Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. The resulting implied probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's new partisan composition and historical voting patterns in the included population centers. A major shift would require exceptional Republican turnout or unforeseen events altering the baseline dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$36,957结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has fundamentally altered Utah's 1st congressional district by shifting its boundaries to encompass most of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City and surrounding urban areas, creating a seat without an incumbent. This change produced a district that favored Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 24 points in 2024, establishing a structural advantage reflected in current trader consensus. Democrat Ben McAdams, a former representative, secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary and will face Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. The resulting implied probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's new partisan composition and historical voting patterns in the included population centers. A major shift would require exceptional Republican turnout or unforeseen events altering the baseline dynamics before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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