Court-ordered redistricting has consolidated Democratic-leaning areas of Salt Lake County into Utah’s 1st Congressional District, producing a D+12 to D+14 baseline where Kamala Harris would have carried the seat by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural shift, finalized after 2025 litigation, transformed a previously Republican-held seat into one rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and now faces Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive Republican opposition or late-cycle polling shifts. Only extraordinary developments—such as a major candidate-specific scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge—could realistically narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,963 交易量
$36,963 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$36,963 交易量
$36,963 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,600 交易量
95%
共和党
$31,363 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting has consolidated Democratic-leaning areas of Salt Lake County into Utah’s 1st Congressional District, producing a D+12 to D+14 baseline where Kamala Harris would have carried the seat by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural shift, finalized after 2025 litigation, transformed a previously Republican-held seat into one rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and now faces Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive Republican opposition or late-cycle polling shifts. Only extraordinary developments—such as a major candidate-specific scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge—could realistically narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$36,963结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting has consolidated Democratic-leaning areas of Salt Lake County into Utah’s 1st Congressional District, producing a D+12 to D+14 baseline where Kamala Harris would have carried the seat by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural shift, finalized after 2025 litigation, transformed a previously Republican-held seat into one rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and now faces Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive Republican opposition or late-cycle polling shifts. Only extraordinary developments—such as a major candidate-specific scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge—could realistically narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$36,963结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Court-ordered redistricting has consolidated Democratic-leaning areas of Salt Lake County into Utah’s 1st Congressional District, producing a D+12 to D+14 baseline where Kamala Harris would have carried the seat by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural shift, finalized after 2025 litigation, transformed a previously Republican-held seat into one rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and now faces Republican Riley Owen in the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive Republican opposition or late-cycle polling shifts. Only extraordinary developments—such as a major candidate-specific scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge—could realistically narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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