Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan commands trader consensus at 80% implied probability to win Minnesota's Democratic U.S. Senate primary for the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, driven by consistent polling leads including a late April Public Policy Polling survey showing her ahead of Rep. Angie Craig by 11 points among likely voters. Flanagan's sweep of delegates at over 90% of local DFL conventions positions her for the party's imminent state endorsement, bolstering her frontrunner status. Craig's 17.5% reflects her fundraising strength but is tempered by backlash over her Laken Riley Act support, including a key state representative's endorsement switch to Flanagan. Other candidates linger below 1% amid negligible polling and organizational support, with the August 11 primary as the resolution date.