Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. His 2024 re-election margin, strong fundraising, labor endorsements, and the district’s consistent Democratic lean underpin trader consensus. The June 2026 primaries advanced Ryan and Republican Jacqueline Auringer without significant opposition, leaving limited time for the challenger to close gaps before the November general election. A late national Republican wave, major candidate-specific development, or turnout surge in competitive pockets could still shift outcomes, though structural advantages currently favor the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,838 交易量
$34,838 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
$34,838 交易量
$34,838 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$32,694 交易量
91%
共和党
$2,144 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. His 2024 re-election margin, strong fundraising, labor endorsements, and the district’s consistent Democratic lean underpin trader consensus. The June 2026 primaries advanced Ryan and Republican Jacqueline Auringer without significant opposition, leaving limited time for the challenger to close gaps before the November general election. A late national Republican wave, major candidate-specific development, or turnout surge in competitive pockets could still shift outcomes, though structural advantages currently favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$34,838结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. His 2024 re-election margin, strong fundraising, labor endorsements, and the district’s consistent Democratic lean underpin trader consensus. The June 2026 primaries advanced Ryan and Republican Jacqueline Auringer without significant opposition, leaving limited time for the challenger to close gaps before the November general election. A late national Republican wave, major candidate-specific development, or turnout surge in competitive pockets could still shift outcomes, though structural advantages currently favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,838结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties. His 2024 re-election margin, strong fundraising, labor endorsements, and the district’s consistent Democratic lean underpin trader consensus. The June 2026 primaries advanced Ryan and Republican Jacqueline Auringer without significant opposition, leaving limited time for the challenger to close gaps before the November general election. A late national Republican wave, major candidate-specific development, or turnout surge in competitive pockets could still shift outcomes, though structural advantages currently favor the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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