Incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic victory in NY-18 stems from his 14-point reelection win in 2024 despite the Hudson Valley district's modest D+2 partisan lean, coupled with a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus none for GOP challenger Jackie Auringer as of late March. Recent GOP disarray, including petition challenges resolved by court ruling on May 1 confirming Auringer's ballot access after a rival's withdrawal, underscores weak Republican appetite for the race, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report. Ahead of June 23 primaries, realistic shifts could arise from a surprise well-funded GOP nominee, national midterm wave dynamics, or unforeseen Ryan scandal or health issue.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,002 交易量
$33,002 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
91%
共和党
10%
$33,002 交易量
$33,002 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$31,721 交易量
91%
共和党
$1,281 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic victory in NY-18 stems from his 14-point reelection win in 2024 despite the Hudson Valley district's modest D+2 partisan lean, coupled with a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus none for GOP challenger Jackie Auringer as of late March. Recent GOP disarray, including petition challenges resolved by court ruling on May 1 confirming Auringer's ballot access after a rival's withdrawal, underscores weak Republican appetite for the race, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report. Ahead of June 23 primaries, realistic shifts could arise from a surprise well-funded GOP nominee, national midterm wave dynamics, or unforeseen Ryan scandal or health issue.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$33,002结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic victory in NY-18 stems from his 14-point reelection win in 2024 despite the Hudson Valley district's modest D+2 partisan lean, coupled with a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus none for GOP challenger Jackie Auringer as of late March. Recent GOP disarray, including petition challenges resolved by court ruling on May 1 confirming Auringer's ballot access after a rival's withdrawal, underscores weak Republican appetite for the race, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report. Ahead of June 23 primaries, realistic shifts could arise from a surprise well-funded GOP nominee, national midterm wave dynamics, or unforeseen Ryan scandal or health issue.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,002结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan's commanding trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for Democratic victory in NY-18 stems from his 14-point reelection win in 2024 despite the Hudson Valley district's modest D+2 partisan lean, coupled with a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus none for GOP challenger Jackie Auringer as of late March. Recent GOP disarray, including petition challenges resolved by court ruling on May 1 confirming Auringer's ballot access after a rival's withdrawal, underscores weak Republican appetite for the race, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report. Ahead of June 23 primaries, realistic shifts could arise from a surprise well-funded GOP nominee, national midterm wave dynamics, or unforeseen Ryan scandal or health issue.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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