**Incumbent Republican Rep. Tracey Mann's stronghold in the R+16 Kansas 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner**, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, overwhelming 69% general election margin in 2024, and fundraising dominance with $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March—far exceeding Democratic primary rivals Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold's modest totals under $20,000 combined. Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect the sprawling rural district's conservative tilt, historically yielding 30-point GOP advantages amid absent polls or challengers signaling competitiveness. Odds could shift via unforeseen GOP primary entrant post-June 1 filing, Mann scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic wave, though structural barriers render these low-probability ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,943 交易量
92%
民主党
$1,526 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Tracey Mann's stronghold in the R+16 Kansas 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner**, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, overwhelming 69% general election margin in 2024, and fundraising dominance with $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March—far exceeding Democratic primary rivals Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold's modest totals under $20,000 combined. Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect the sprawling rural district's conservative tilt, historically yielding 30-point GOP advantages amid absent polls or challengers signaling competitiveness. Odds could shift via unforeseen GOP primary entrant post-June 1 filing, Mann scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic wave, though structural barriers render these low-probability ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$3,468结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Tracey Mann's stronghold in the R+16 Kansas 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner**, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, overwhelming 69% general election margin in 2024, and fundraising dominance with $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March—far exceeding Democratic primary rivals Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold's modest totals under $20,000 combined. Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect the sprawling rural district's conservative tilt, historically yielding 30-point GOP advantages amid absent polls or challengers signaling competitiveness. Odds could shift via unforeseen GOP primary entrant post-June 1 filing, Mann scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic wave, though structural barriers render these low-probability ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,468结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Rep. Tracey Mann's stronghold in the R+16 Kansas 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner**, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, overwhelming 69% general election margin in 2024, and fundraising dominance with $2.5 million cash-on-hand as of late March—far exceeding Democratic primary rivals Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold's modest totals under $20,000 combined. Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect the sprawling rural district's conservative tilt, historically yielding 30-point GOP advantages amid absent polls or challengers signaling competitiveness. Odds could shift via unforeseen GOP primary entrant post-June 1 filing, Mann scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic wave, though structural barriers render these low-probability ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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