The retirement of Republican incumbent Don Bacon has transformed Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District into an open seat in a constituency with a D+3 partisan voter index, where Kamala Harris carried the district by five points in 2024. This structural shift has produced a trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 78 percent, as the race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classify the contest as Lean Democratic. The May 12, 2026, Democratic primary settled on Denise Powell as the nominee after a narrow victory over state Senator John Cavanaugh, clarifying the general-election matchup against Republican Brinker Harding. Absent major late-cycle developments, the combination of the open-seat dynamic, district lean, and resolved Democratic field sustains the current implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$27,566 交易量
$27,566 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
78%
共和党
16%
$27,566 交易量
$27,566 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$27,294 交易量
78%
共和党
$272 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of Republican incumbent Don Bacon has transformed Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District into an open seat in a constituency with a D+3 partisan voter index, where Kamala Harris carried the district by five points in 2024. This structural shift has produced a trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 78 percent, as the race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classify the contest as Lean Democratic. The May 12, 2026, Democratic primary settled on Denise Powell as the nominee after a narrow victory over state Senator John Cavanaugh, clarifying the general-election matchup against Republican Brinker Harding. Absent major late-cycle developments, the combination of the open-seat dynamic, district lean, and resolved Democratic field sustains the current implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$27,566结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of Republican incumbent Don Bacon has transformed Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District into an open seat in a constituency with a D+3 partisan voter index, where Kamala Harris carried the district by five points in 2024. This structural shift has produced a trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 78 percent, as the race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classify the contest as Lean Democratic. The May 12, 2026, Democratic primary settled on Denise Powell as the nominee after a narrow victory over state Senator John Cavanaugh, clarifying the general-election matchup against Republican Brinker Harding. Absent major late-cycle developments, the combination of the open-seat dynamic, district lean, and resolved Democratic field sustains the current implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$27,566结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of Republican incumbent Don Bacon has transformed Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District into an open seat in a constituency with a D+3 partisan voter index, where Kamala Harris carried the district by five points in 2024. This structural shift has produced a trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 78 percent, as the race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classify the contest as Lean Democratic. The May 12, 2026, Democratic primary settled on Denise Powell as the nominee after a narrow victory over state Senator John Cavanaugh, clarifying the general-election matchup against Republican Brinker Harding. Absent major late-cycle developments, the combination of the open-seat dynamic, district lean, and resolved Democratic field sustains the current implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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