Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.7% implied probability to retain Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting its Cook PVI D+17 rating, safe Democratic status across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and consistent general election margins exceeding 40 points, as in 2024 when Jesús "Chuy" García won 68%-27%. The open seat followed García's late withdrawal and endorsement of chief of staff Patty García, who won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary; Republican Lupe Castillo, the 2024 nominee, advances unopposed but faces steep historical deficits. In the past month, independents including Ald. Byron Sigcho-López and Mayra Macías have pursued ballot access amid controversy over the primary process—signature deadlines loom May 26 with challenges expected—yet no shifts erode the district's blue stronghold absent a major Democratic scandal, nominee health issue, or national Republican wave ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,053 交易量
$45,053 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$45,053 交易量
$45,053 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$30,599 交易量
95%
共和党
$14,454 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.7% implied probability to retain Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting its Cook PVI D+17 rating, safe Democratic status across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and consistent general election margins exceeding 40 points, as in 2024 when Jesús "Chuy" García won 68%-27%. The open seat followed García's late withdrawal and endorsement of chief of staff Patty García, who won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary; Republican Lupe Castillo, the 2024 nominee, advances unopposed but faces steep historical deficits. In the past month, independents including Ald. Byron Sigcho-López and Mayra Macías have pursued ballot access amid controversy over the primary process—signature deadlines loom May 26 with challenges expected—yet no shifts erode the district's blue stronghold absent a major Democratic scandal, nominee health issue, or national Republican wave ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$45,053结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.7% implied probability to retain Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting its Cook PVI D+17 rating, safe Democratic status across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and consistent general election margins exceeding 40 points, as in 2024 when Jesús "Chuy" García won 68%-27%. The open seat followed García's late withdrawal and endorsement of chief of staff Patty García, who won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary; Republican Lupe Castillo, the 2024 nominee, advances unopposed but faces steep historical deficits. In the past month, independents including Ald. Byron Sigcho-López and Mayra Macías have pursued ballot access amid controversy over the primary process—signature deadlines loom May 26 with challenges expected—yet no shifts erode the district's blue stronghold absent a major Democratic scandal, nominee health issue, or national Republican wave ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,053结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.7% implied probability to retain Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting its Cook PVI D+17 rating, safe Democratic status across forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, and consistent general election margins exceeding 40 points, as in 2024 when Jesús "Chuy" García won 68%-27%. The open seat followed García's late withdrawal and endorsement of chief of staff Patty García, who won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary; Republican Lupe Castillo, the 2024 nominee, advances unopposed but faces steep historical deficits. In the past month, independents including Ald. Byron Sigcho-López and Mayra Macías have pursued ballot access amid controversy over the primary process—signature deadlines loom May 26 with challenges expected—yet no shifts erode the district's blue stronghold absent a major Democratic scandal, nominee health issue, or national Republican wave ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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