Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu's commanding position in solidly Democratic CA-28 drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's D+15 partisan voter index, her multi-term incumbency advantage, and historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Recent developments include Chu's introduction of H.R. 8604 on the Language Access Board Act just days ago and her active campaign questionnaire responses ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, with no competitive Republican challengers emerging to shift dynamics. Markets anticipate the primary will advance Chu or another Democrat to the November general election, barring unforeseen scandals or turnout surges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$89,254 交易量
$89,254 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
90%
共和党
10%
$89,254 交易量
$89,254 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$41,330 交易量
90%
共和党
$47,923 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu's commanding position in solidly Democratic CA-28 drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's D+15 partisan voter index, her multi-term incumbency advantage, and historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Recent developments include Chu's introduction of H.R. 8604 on the Language Access Board Act just days ago and her active campaign questionnaire responses ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, with no competitive Republican challengers emerging to shift dynamics. Markets anticipate the primary will advance Chu or another Democrat to the November general election, barring unforeseen scandals or turnout surges.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$89,254结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu's commanding position in solidly Democratic CA-28 drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's D+15 partisan voter index, her multi-term incumbency advantage, and historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Recent developments include Chu's introduction of H.R. 8604 on the Language Access Board Act just days ago and her active campaign questionnaire responses ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, with no competitive Republican challengers emerging to shift dynamics. Markets anticipate the primary will advance Chu or another Democrat to the November general election, barring unforeseen scandals or turnout surges.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$89,254结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu's commanding position in solidly Democratic CA-28 drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reflecting the district's D+15 partisan voter index, her multi-term incumbency advantage, and historical base rates for safe seats where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Recent developments include Chu's introduction of H.R. 8604 on the Language Access Board Act just days ago and her active campaign questionnaire responses ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, with no competitive Republican challengers emerging to shift dynamics. Markets anticipate the primary will advance Chu or another Democrat to the November general election, barring unforeseen scandals or turnout surges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题