California's 33rd congressional district features a strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and voter registration favoring Democrats. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 53 percent of the vote and faces Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general election. The district's composition, including a large Hispanic population and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus on the party's high probability of retaining the seat. Factors such as Aguilar's incumbency advantage and the absence of major competitive shifts reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions could arise from an unforeseen national Republican surge, a significant candidate-specific event, or late developments in turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,877 交易量
$17,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$17,877 交易量
$17,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$7,029 交易量
95%
共和党
$10,848 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 33rd congressional district features a strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and voter registration favoring Democrats. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 53 percent of the vote and faces Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general election. The district's composition, including a large Hispanic population and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus on the party's high probability of retaining the seat. Factors such as Aguilar's incumbency advantage and the absence of major competitive shifts reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions could arise from an unforeseen national Republican surge, a significant candidate-specific event, or late developments in turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$17,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 33rd congressional district features a strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and voter registration favoring Democrats. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 53 percent of the vote and faces Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general election. The district's composition, including a large Hispanic population and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus on the party's high probability of retaining the seat. Factors such as Aguilar's incumbency advantage and the absence of major competitive shifts reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions could arise from an unforeseen national Republican surge, a significant candidate-specific event, or late developments in turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 33rd congressional district features a strong Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and voter registration favoring Democrats. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with over 53 percent of the vote and faces Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general election. The district's composition, including a large Hispanic population and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus on the party's high probability of retaining the seat. Factors such as Aguilar's incumbency advantage and the absence of major competitive shifts reinforce this positioning. Potential disruptions could arise from an unforeseen national Republican surge, a significant candidate-specific event, or late developments in turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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