Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,877 交易量
$17,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$17,877 交易量
$17,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$7,029 交易量
95%
共和党
$10,848 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$17,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar's strong primary performance and the district's established voting patterns underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Stephanie Vargas, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising. Historical results, including Aguilar's 2024 reelection, and the absence of competitive primary challenges or late developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or turnout surges in Republican-leaning pockets, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely without major catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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