Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary with over 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in eastern Los Angeles County. Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 94.5% due to the incumbent's established base, California's partisan registration patterns, and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has historically exceeded 55% in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment capable of lifting down-ballot challengers in otherwise safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$16,328 交易量
$16,328 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$16,328 交易量
$16,328 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$7,829 交易量
95%
共和党
$8,499 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary with over 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in eastern Los Angeles County. Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 94.5% due to the incumbent's established base, California's partisan registration patterns, and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has historically exceeded 55% in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment capable of lifting down-ballot challengers in otherwise safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$16,328结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary with over 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in eastern Los Angeles County. Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 94.5% due to the incumbent's established base, California's partisan registration patterns, and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has historically exceeded 55% in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment capable of lifting down-ballot challengers in otherwise safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,328结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary with over 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in eastern Los Angeles County. Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 94.5% due to the incumbent's established base, California's partisan registration patterns, and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primary. The Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has historically exceeded 55% in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment capable of lifting down-ballot challengers in otherwise safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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