Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,927 交易量
$15,927 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$15,927 交易量
$15,927 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$7,679 交易量
95%
共和党
$8,248 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$15,927结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,927结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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