Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,291 交易量
$21,291 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$21,291 交易量
$21,291 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$3,902 交易量
95%
共和党
$17,390 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$21,291结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,291结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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