Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan voting index and history of lopsided Democratic margins exceeding 50 points. With no credible Republican challenger emerging ahead of the June 23 primaries, the race remains a safe Democratic hold per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate announcements in the crowded Democratic primary, including challengers like Jakeya Johnson and Joseph Gomes, have not shifted general election dynamics. Upsets would require a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary, a major Ivey scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,185 交易量
$23,185 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$23,185 交易量
$23,185 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$7,857 交易量
93%
共和党
$15,328 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan voting index and history of lopsided Democratic margins exceeding 50 points. With no credible Republican challenger emerging ahead of the June 23 primaries, the race remains a safe Democratic hold per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate announcements in the crowded Democratic primary, including challengers like Jakeya Johnson and Joseph Gomes, have not shifted general election dynamics. Upsets would require a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary, a major Ivey scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$23,185结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan voting index and history of lopsided Democratic margins exceeding 50 points. With no credible Republican challenger emerging ahead of the June 23 primaries, the race remains a safe Democratic hold per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate announcements in the crowded Democratic primary, including challengers like Jakeya Johnson and Joseph Gomes, have not shifted general election dynamics. Upsets would require a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary, a major Ivey scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,185结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan voting index and history of lopsided Democratic margins exceeding 50 points. With no credible Republican challenger emerging ahead of the June 23 primaries, the race remains a safe Democratic hold per nonpartisan ratings like Cook Political Report. Recent candidate announcements in the crowded Democratic primary, including challengers like Jakeya Johnson and Joseph Gomes, have not shifted general election dynamics. Upsets would require a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary, a major Ivey scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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