Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee leads trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 15th Congressional District seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others amid a new mid-decade map signed May 4 that bolsters the Tampa-area district's GOP lean toward a projected statewide 24-4 Republican advantage. Lee's $1.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like physician Darren McAuley ($266,000), following Kimberly Overman's May 5 shift to another district, while Hernando Commissioner Steve Champion's May 1 primary challenge announcement has not materialized on filings ahead of the June 12 deadline. No polls exist, but Lee's 2024 56%-44% win underscores incumbency edge ahead of August 18 primaries and November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
83%
民主党
16%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,855 交易量
83%
民主党
$3,786 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee leads trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 15th Congressional District seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others amid a new mid-decade map signed May 4 that bolsters the Tampa-area district's GOP lean toward a projected statewide 24-4 Republican advantage. Lee's $1.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like physician Darren McAuley ($266,000), following Kimberly Overman's May 5 shift to another district, while Hernando Commissioner Steve Champion's May 1 primary challenge announcement has not materialized on filings ahead of the June 12 deadline. No polls exist, but Lee's 2024 56%-44% win underscores incumbency edge ahead of August 18 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$6,641结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee leads trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 15th Congressional District seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others amid a new mid-decade map signed May 4 that bolsters the Tampa-area district's GOP lean toward a projected statewide 24-4 Republican advantage. Lee's $1.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like physician Darren McAuley ($266,000), following Kimberly Overman's May 5 shift to another district, while Hernando Commissioner Steve Champion's May 1 primary challenge announcement has not materialized on filings ahead of the June 12 deadline. No polls exist, but Lee's 2024 56%-44% win underscores incumbency edge ahead of August 18 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,641结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee leads trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 15th Congressional District seat, reflecting forecasters' Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others amid a new mid-decade map signed May 4 that bolsters the Tampa-area district's GOP lean toward a projected statewide 24-4 Republican advantage. Lee's $1.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like physician Darren McAuley ($266,000), following Kimberly Overman's May 5 shift to another district, while Hernando Commissioner Steve Champion's May 1 primary challenge announcement has not materialized on filings ahead of the June 12 deadline. No polls exist, but Lee's 2024 56%-44% win underscores incumbency edge ahead of August 18 primaries and November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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