The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+8 partisan voting index, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Democratic nominee to prevail in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Madeleine Dean benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, while facing only nominal primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote. The Republican nominee, Aurora Stuski, lacks comparable resources or statewide profile in a district anchored by Montgomery County suburbs. No recent polling shifts or national events have altered these fundamentals, though an unforeseen late-cycle scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the margin without overcoming the structural Democratic advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,515 交易量
93%
共和党
$6,552 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+8 partisan voting index, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Democratic nominee to prevail in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Madeleine Dean benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, while facing only nominal primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote. The Republican nominee, Aurora Stuski, lacks comparable resources or statewide profile in a district anchored by Montgomery County suburbs. No recent polling shifts or national events have altered these fundamentals, though an unforeseen late-cycle scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the margin without overcoming the structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$8,067结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+8 partisan voting index, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Democratic nominee to prevail in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Madeleine Dean benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, while facing only nominal primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote. The Republican nominee, Aurora Stuski, lacks comparable resources or statewide profile in a district anchored by Montgomery County suburbs. No recent polling shifts or national events have altered these fundamentals, though an unforeseen late-cycle scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the margin without overcoming the structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,067结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+8 partisan voting index, underpins the 92.5% market price for the Democratic nominee to prevail in the November 3 general election. Incumbent Madeleine Dean benefits from established name recognition, substantial fundraising, and committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, while facing only nominal primary opposition ahead of the May 19 vote. The Republican nominee, Aurora Stuski, lacks comparable resources or statewide profile in a district anchored by Montgomery County suburbs. No recent polling shifts or national events have altered these fundamentals, though an unforeseen late-cycle scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the margin without overcoming the structural Democratic advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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