Longtime incumbent Rep. Hal Rogers (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+32 partisan voter index where Donald Trump won 81% in 2024 and Rogers secured 100% unopposed last cycle. The May 19 closed primary features Rogers against four low-fundraising challengers—Kevin Smith trails with just $20,000 cash on hand versus Rogers' $860,000—bolstering expectations of his renomination amid recent early voting and candidate forums. Democrat Ned Pillersdorf advances unopposed, but historical general election margins exceed 80% for Republicans. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Rogers' health issues at age 89, scandal, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics before November 3 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,161 交易量
$12,161 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$12,161 交易量
$12,161 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,880 交易量
94%
民主党
$3,281 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Longtime incumbent Rep. Hal Rogers (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+32 partisan voter index where Donald Trump won 81% in 2024 and Rogers secured 100% unopposed last cycle. The May 19 closed primary features Rogers against four low-fundraising challengers—Kevin Smith trails with just $20,000 cash on hand versus Rogers' $860,000—bolstering expectations of his renomination amid recent early voting and candidate forums. Democrat Ned Pillersdorf advances unopposed, but historical general election margins exceed 80% for Republicans. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Rogers' health issues at age 89, scandal, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics before November 3 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$12,161结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Longtime incumbent Rep. Hal Rogers (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+32 partisan voter index where Donald Trump won 81% in 2024 and Rogers secured 100% unopposed last cycle. The May 19 closed primary features Rogers against four low-fundraising challengers—Kevin Smith trails with just $20,000 cash on hand versus Rogers' $860,000—bolstering expectations of his renomination amid recent early voting and candidate forums. Democrat Ned Pillersdorf advances unopposed, but historical general election margins exceed 80% for Republicans. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Rogers' health issues at age 89, scandal, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics before November 3 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,161结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Longtime incumbent Rep. Hal Rogers (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party in Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+32 partisan voter index where Donald Trump won 81% in 2024 and Rogers secured 100% unopposed last cycle. The May 19 closed primary features Rogers against four low-fundraising challengers—Kevin Smith trails with just $20,000 cash on hand versus Rogers' $860,000—bolstering expectations of his renomination amid recent early voting and candidate forums. Democrat Ned Pillersdorf advances unopposed, but historical general election margins exceed 80% for Republicans. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset, Rogers' health issues at age 89, scandal, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics before November 3 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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