Trader consensus gives Democrats a commanding 93% implied probability to win Michigan's 12th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index, incumbent Rashida Tlaib's dominant 2024 victory margin of 44 points over Republican James Hooper, and her substantial fundraising edge with over $4.6 million cash on hand as of late March. Recent Democratic primary filings in April, including challengers Byron Nolen, Allen Downer, and Shanelle Jackson, have not shifted general election dynamics, with ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball unanimously deeming it Solid or Safe Democratic. Hooper remains the lone announced Republican contender. Scenarios that could challenge this include a disorganized Democratic primary outcome, Tlaib scandal, or massive national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in such safe seats ahead of the August 4 primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,833 交易量
$28,833 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
5%
$28,833 交易量
$28,833 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$17,658 交易量
93%
共和党
$11,175 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats a commanding 93% implied probability to win Michigan's 12th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index, incumbent Rashida Tlaib's dominant 2024 victory margin of 44 points over Republican James Hooper, and her substantial fundraising edge with over $4.6 million cash on hand as of late March. Recent Democratic primary filings in April, including challengers Byron Nolen, Allen Downer, and Shanelle Jackson, have not shifted general election dynamics, with ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball unanimously deeming it Solid or Safe Democratic. Hooper remains the lone announced Republican contender. Scenarios that could challenge this include a disorganized Democratic primary outcome, Tlaib scandal, or massive national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in such safe seats ahead of the August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$28,833结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats a commanding 93% implied probability to win Michigan's 12th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index, incumbent Rashida Tlaib's dominant 2024 victory margin of 44 points over Republican James Hooper, and her substantial fundraising edge with over $4.6 million cash on hand as of late March. Recent Democratic primary filings in April, including challengers Byron Nolen, Allen Downer, and Shanelle Jackson, have not shifted general election dynamics, with ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball unanimously deeming it Solid or Safe Democratic. Hooper remains the lone announced Republican contender. Scenarios that could challenge this include a disorganized Democratic primary outcome, Tlaib scandal, or massive national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in such safe seats ahead of the August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,833结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Democrats a commanding 93% implied probability to win Michigan's 12th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index, incumbent Rashida Tlaib's dominant 2024 victory margin of 44 points over Republican James Hooper, and her substantial fundraising edge with over $4.6 million cash on hand as of late March. Recent Democratic primary filings in April, including challengers Byron Nolen, Allen Downer, and Shanelle Jackson, have not shifted general election dynamics, with ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball unanimously deeming it Solid or Safe Democratic. Hooper remains the lone announced Republican contender. Scenarios that could challenge this include a disorganized Democratic primary outcome, Tlaib scandal, or massive national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor incumbents in such safe seats ahead of the August 4 primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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