Kentucky's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Brett Guthrie's 73 percent re-election margin in 2024 and the absence of any Democratic victory there since 1884. Guthrie secured the GOP nomination without significant opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Democrat Megan Wingfield emerged from her contest to face him in the November general election alongside an independent. The district's voter base in west-central Kentucky, encompassing areas like Bowling Green and Owensboro, continues to favor Republican candidates in federal races. Trader consensus at 94 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a nationalized environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,970 交易量
$11,970 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$11,970 交易量
$11,970 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$6,022 交易量
94%
民主党
$5,948 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Brett Guthrie's 73 percent re-election margin in 2024 and the absence of any Democratic victory there since 1884. Guthrie secured the GOP nomination without significant opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Democrat Megan Wingfield emerged from her contest to face him in the November general election alongside an independent. The district's voter base in west-central Kentucky, encompassing areas like Bowling Green and Owensboro, continues to favor Republican candidates in federal races. Trader consensus at 94 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a nationalized environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$11,970结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Brett Guthrie's 73 percent re-election margin in 2024 and the absence of any Democratic victory there since 1884. Guthrie secured the GOP nomination without significant opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Democrat Megan Wingfield emerged from her contest to face him in the November general election alongside an independent. The district's voter base in west-central Kentucky, encompassing areas like Bowling Green and Owensboro, continues to favor Republican candidates in federal races. Trader consensus at 94 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a nationalized environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,970结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Brett Guthrie's 73 percent re-election margin in 2024 and the absence of any Democratic victory there since 1884. Guthrie secured the GOP nomination without significant opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Democrat Megan Wingfield emerged from her contest to face him in the November general election alongside an independent. The district's voter base in west-central Kentucky, encompassing areas like Bowling Green and Owensboro, continues to favor Republican candidates in federal races. Trader consensus at 94 percent Republican probability aligns with these structural factors. Potential shifts could stem from late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a nationalized environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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