Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主党
$3,648 交易量
97%
共和党
$3,076 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,724结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,724结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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