**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Kansas’s solidly red Senate race, with traders assigning him a 79.5% implied probability against Democrat Adam Hamilton’s 21%.** Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Marshall secured the GOP nomination easily in the August 4 primary. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans dominate Senate contests. Recent polling shows a tighter race than historical patterns, with aggregates around early September placing Marshall ahead by roughly 2–4 points amid fundraising strength for Hamilton and debate exchanges on tariffs, agriculture, and national issues. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s assessment of Marshall’s advantages in voter base and incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,659 交易量
$50,659 交易量
2026-11-02
罗杰·马歇尔（共和党）
80%
亚当·汉密尔顿（民主党）
21%
$50,659 交易量
$50,659 交易量
2026-11-02
罗杰·马歇尔（共和党）
$32,667 交易量
80%
亚当·汉密尔顿（民主党）
$17,992 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Kansas’s solidly red Senate race, with traders assigning him a 79.5% implied probability against Democrat Adam Hamilton’s 21%.** Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Marshall secured the GOP nomination easily in the August 4 primary. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans dominate Senate contests. Recent polling shows a tighter race than historical patterns, with aggregates around early September placing Marshall ahead by roughly 2–4 points amid fundraising strength for Hamilton and debate exchanges on tariffs, agriculture, and national issues. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s assessment of Marshall’s advantages in voter base and incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$50,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Kansas’s solidly red Senate race, with traders assigning him a 79.5% implied probability against Democrat Adam Hamilton’s 21%.** Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Marshall secured the GOP nomination easily in the August 4 primary. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans dominate Senate contests. Recent polling shows a tighter race than historical patterns, with aggregates around early September placing Marshall ahead by roughly 2–4 points amid fundraising strength for Hamilton and debate exchanges on tariffs, agriculture, and national issues. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s assessment of Marshall’s advantages in voter base and incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$50,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET**Roger Marshall holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Kansas’s solidly red Senate race, with traders assigning him a 79.5% implied probability against Democrat Adam Hamilton’s 21%.** Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Marshall secured the GOP nomination easily in the August 4 primary. Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, won a crowded Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans dominate Senate contests. Recent polling shows a tighter race than historical patterns, with aggregates around early September placing Marshall ahead by roughly 2–4 points amid fundraising strength for Hamilton and debate exchanges on tariffs, agriculture, and national issues. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s assessment of Marshall’s advantages in voter base and incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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