Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive of the three Great Plains contests, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek separated by just 2 points or less in multiple surveys. This positioning stems from the retirement of incumbent Joni Ernst, a strong Democratic nominee in state Rep. Josh Turek, and broader midterm dynamics that have narrowed margins in the state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska follows as traders assess incumbent Pete Ricketts holding a narrower lead over independent Dan Osborn, who previously ran competitively and benefits from unified opposition support. Kansas remains the least threatened, as incumbent Roger Marshall maintains an advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton despite one recent survey showing a slight Democratic edge and Cook Political Report shifting the race to Likely Republican. These relative margins align with the current market pricing on which race represents the GOP's weakest Great Plains performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于爱荷华州 55%
内布拉斯加州 34%
堪萨斯 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
爱荷华州
55%
内布拉斯加州
34%
堪萨斯
14%
爱荷华州 55%
内布拉斯加州 34%
堪萨斯 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
爱荷华州
$511 交易量
55%
内布拉斯加州
$188 交易量
34%
堪萨斯
$127 交易量
14%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive of the three Great Plains contests, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek separated by just 2 points or less in multiple surveys. This positioning stems from the retirement of incumbent Joni Ernst, a strong Democratic nominee in state Rep. Josh Turek, and broader midterm dynamics that have narrowed margins in the state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska follows as traders assess incumbent Pete Ricketts holding a narrower lead over independent Dan Osborn, who previously ran competitively and benefits from unified opposition support. Kansas remains the least threatened, as incumbent Roger Marshall maintains an advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton despite one recent survey showing a slight Democratic edge and Cook Political Report shifting the race to Likely Republican. These relative margins align with the current market pricing on which race represents the GOP's weakest Great Plains performance.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$826结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive of the three Great Plains contests, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek separated by just 2 points or less in multiple surveys. This positioning stems from the retirement of incumbent Joni Ernst, a strong Democratic nominee in state Rep. Josh Turek, and broader midterm dynamics that have narrowed margins in the state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska follows as traders assess incumbent Pete Ricketts holding a narrower lead over independent Dan Osborn, who previously ran competitively and benefits from unified opposition support. Kansas remains the least threatened, as incumbent Roger Marshall maintains an advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton despite one recent survey showing a slight Democratic edge and Cook Political Report shifting the race to Likely Republican. These relative margins align with the current market pricing on which race represents the GOP's weakest Great Plains performance.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$826结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETIowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive of the three Great Plains contests, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek separated by just 2 points or less in multiple surveys. This positioning stems from the retirement of incumbent Joni Ernst, a strong Democratic nominee in state Rep. Josh Turek, and broader midterm dynamics that have narrowed margins in the state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Nebraska follows as traders assess incumbent Pete Ricketts holding a narrower lead over independent Dan Osborn, who previously ran competitively and benefits from unified opposition support. Kansas remains the least threatened, as incumbent Roger Marshall maintains an advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton despite one recent survey showing a slight Democratic edge and Cook Political Report shifting the race to Likely Republican. These relative margins align with the current market pricing on which race represents the GOP's weakest Great Plains performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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