Traders see a 97% chance that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock leaves the Senate during 2026, driven by the lack of any recent announcements, health developments, or institutional pressures that would trigger resignation before the next election cycle. Ossoff holds incumbency advantage heading into the November 2026 contest in Georgia, where Senate outcomes have aligned with established voting patterns in recent cycles, while Warnock’s term runs through 2029 and faces no immediate electoral test. The consensus reflects the absence of credible primary challengers, scandals, or party shifts capable of altering these trajectories within the resolution window. Late developments such as an unexpected retirement or major legal event could still intervene, though none have surfaced in the past several months.