The November 7, 2026, election produced preliminary results showing the National Party securing 42 electorate seats and a 67-seat bloc with ACT and New Zealand First in the expanded 131-seat Parliament, one above the majority threshold. This commanding position stems from National's strong electorate performance creating an overhang, which delivered more seats than its 29.2% party vote share alone would allocate under MMP, while Labour edged the popular vote at 29.4% but secured only 36 seats. Nearly 400,000 special votes remain outstanding ahead of official results on November 27, yet trader consensus reflects limited expectation of a reversal given historical patterns and the scale of National's current lead. A realistic challenge would require special votes to shift multiple seats toward Labour, the Greens, and Opportunity in ways that enable a left-leaning coalition to reach 66 seats.