Preliminary results from New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election under the MMP system show the National Party securing the most seats at 42, ahead of Labour’s 36, with the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding 67 seats in the expanded 131-seat parliament—just above the 66-seat majority threshold. National’s strong electorate wins created an overhang that boosted its seat total despite a narrow loss in the party vote to Labour. Traders assign the National Party a 98.3% implied probability of winning because special votes, which remain to be counted until official results on 27 November, have historically favored left-leaning parties but appear unlikely to reverse the seat gap or coalition position on current margins. Shifts sufficient for a Labour-led government would require unusually large swings in remaining ballots.