**USGS tiltmeter data tracking summit inflation rates after Episode 52's recent pause remain the dominant driver of trader positioning for Kīlauea Episode 53.** Following the abrupt shift from deflation to steady reinflation in late July, models based on historical pressurization cycles at the Halemaʻumaʻu vents currently place the most probable fountaining window between August 8–13. This produces closely matched implied probabilities across the listed buckets, with modest edges to later dates reflecting the current measured inflation trajectory and absence of accelerating signals. Key variables traders monitor include daily microradian changes at instruments like Uēkahuna, which have shown consistent positive trends without the rapid buildup sometimes seen just before an episode. Official HVO forecasts narrow gradually as new tilt observations arrive, and any deviation—such as a sudden rate increase or renewed short deflationary dip—could shift odds within the 8–13 window. Episode 53 would mark another in the ongoing sequence of summit lava fountaining episodes that began in December 2024, resolved by the first sustained fountaining from the north or south vent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11-12日 49%
8月13日或之后 48%
8月8日或更早 34%
8月9日至10日 33%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
8月8日或更早
34%
8月9日至10日
33%
8月11-12日
49%
8月13日或之后
48%
8月11-12日 49%
8月13日或之后 48%
8月8日或更早 34%
8月9日至10日 33%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
8月8日或更早
$0 交易量
34%
8月9日至10日
$0 交易量
33%
8月11-12日
$20 交易量
49%
8月13日或之后
$0 交易量
48%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**USGS tiltmeter data tracking summit inflation rates after Episode 52's recent pause remain the dominant driver of trader positioning for Kīlauea Episode 53.** Following the abrupt shift from deflation to steady reinflation in late July, models based on historical pressurization cycles at the Halemaʻumaʻu vents currently place the most probable fountaining window between August 8–13. This produces closely matched implied probabilities across the listed buckets, with modest edges to later dates reflecting the current measured inflation trajectory and absence of accelerating signals.
Key variables traders monitor include daily microradian changes at instruments like Uēkahuna, which have shown consistent positive trends without the rapid buildup sometimes seen just before an episode. Official HVO forecasts narrow gradually as new tilt observations arrive, and any deviation—such as a sudden rate increase or renewed short deflationary dip—could shift odds within the 8–13 window. Episode 53 would mark another in the ongoing sequence of summit lava fountaining episodes that began in December 2024, resolved by the first sustained fountaining from the north or south vent.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETThis market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**USGS tiltmeter data tracking summit inflation rates after Episode 52's recent pause remain the dominant driver of trader positioning for Kīlauea Episode 53.** Following the abrupt shift from deflation to steady reinflation in late July, models based on historical pressurization cycles at the Halemaʻumaʻu vents currently place the most probable fountaining window between August 8–13. This produces closely matched implied probabilities across the listed buckets, with modest edges to later dates reflecting the current measured inflation trajectory and absence of accelerating signals.
Key variables traders monitor include daily microradian changes at instruments like Uēkahuna, which have shown consistent positive trends without the rapid buildup sometimes seen just before an episode. Official HVO forecasts narrow gradually as new tilt observations arrive, and any deviation—such as a sudden rate increase or renewed short deflationary dip—could shift odds within the 8–13 window. Episode 53 would mark another in the ongoing sequence of summit lava fountaining episodes that began in December 2024, resolved by the first sustained fountaining from the north or south vent.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET**USGS tiltmeter data tracking summit inflation rates after Episode 52's recent pause remain the dominant driver of trader positioning for Kīlauea Episode 53.** Following the abrupt shift from deflation to steady reinflation in late July, models based on historical pressurization cycles at the Halemaʻumaʻu vents currently place the most probable fountaining window between August 8–13. This produces closely matched implied probabilities across the listed buckets, with modest edges to later dates reflecting the current measured inflation trajectory and absence of accelerating signals. Key variables traders monitor include daily microradian changes at instruments like Uēkahuna, which have shown consistent positive trends without the rapid buildup sometimes seen just before an episode. Official HVO forecasts narrow gradually as new tilt observations arrive, and any deviation—such as a sudden rate increase or renewed short deflationary dip—could shift odds within the 8–13 window. Episode 53 would mark another in the ongoing sequence of summit lava fountaining episodes that began in December 2024, resolved by the first sustained fountaining from the north or south vent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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