Early-season tornado activity across the United States has run well above historical norms, with more than 560 confirmed reports through mid-May 2026 according to National Weather Service surveys and NOAA preliminary data. Multiple significant outbreaks, including those in March and the large April 17–18 and 22–24 events that produced an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have driven this pace. The long-term annual average stands near 1,225, so the current trajectory strongly supports totals exceeding 1,250. Forecasters continue to watch atmospheric patterns such as wind shear and instability through the peak months, with additional model updates and monthly NOAA counts expected to refine the outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1250+ 87%
<950 7.2%
950–999 4.8%
1100–1149 4.7%
$72,229 交易量
$72,229 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
7%
950–999
5%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
5%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
15%
1250+
81%
1250+ 87%
<950 7.2%
950–999 4.8%
1100–1149 4.7%
$72,229 交易量
$72,229 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
$22,427 交易量
7%
950–999
$2,976 交易量
5%
1000–1049
$2,424 交易量
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 交易量
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 交易量
5%
1150–1199
$2,650 交易量
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 交易量
15%
1250+
$16,698 交易量
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early-season tornado activity across the United States has run well above historical norms, with more than 560 confirmed reports through mid-May 2026 according to National Weather Service surveys and NOAA preliminary data. Multiple significant outbreaks, including those in March and the large April 17–18 and 22–24 events that produced an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have driven this pace. The long-term annual average stands near 1,225, so the current trajectory strongly supports totals exceeding 1,250. Forecasters continue to watch atmospheric patterns such as wind shear and instability through the peak months, with additional model updates and monthly NOAA counts expected to refine the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$72,229结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early-season tornado activity across the United States has run well above historical norms, with more than 560 confirmed reports through mid-May 2026 according to National Weather Service surveys and NOAA preliminary data. Multiple significant outbreaks, including those in March and the large April 17–18 and 22–24 events that produced an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have driven this pace. The long-term annual average stands near 1,225, so the current trajectory strongly supports totals exceeding 1,250. Forecasters continue to watch atmospheric patterns such as wind shear and instability through the peak months, with additional model updates and monthly NOAA counts expected to refine the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$72,229结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early-season tornado activity across the United States has run well above historical norms, with more than 560 confirmed reports through mid-May 2026 according to National Weather Service surveys and NOAA preliminary data. Multiple significant outbreaks, including those in March and the large April 17–18 and 22–24 events that produced an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have driven this pace. The long-term annual average stands near 1,225, so the current trajectory strongly supports totals exceeding 1,250. Forecasters continue to watch atmospheric patterns such as wind shear and instability through the peak months, with additional model updates and monthly NOAA counts expected to refine the outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题