President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid Minneapolis protests over a fatal ICE shooting drove early market interest, but troops from Alaska's 11th Airborne Division were stood down after de-escalation, leaving probabilities low at 6% by June 30 and 22% by December 31 per trader consensus. No verifiable civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion warranting domestic military deployment under this Posse Comitatus exception has emerged in the past 30 days, anchoring the skepticism. Congressional reform bill S.2070 seeks to impose limits amid 2026 midterm pressures, while potential catalysts like escalating urban unrest, border crises, or election tensions could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,086,469 交易量
2026-12-31
6月30日
6%
12月31日
27%
$1,086,469 交易量
6月30日
$70,102 交易量
6%
12月31日
$132,772 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid Minneapolis protests over a fatal ICE shooting drove early market interest, but troops from Alaska's 11th Airborne Division were stood down after de-escalation, leaving probabilities low at 6% by June 30 and 22% by December 31 per trader consensus. No verifiable civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion warranting domestic military deployment under this Posse Comitatus exception has emerged in the past 30 days, anchoring the skepticism. Congressional reform bill S.2070 seeks to impose limits amid 2026 midterm pressures, while potential catalysts like escalating urban unrest, border crises, or election tensions could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
交易量
$1,086,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid Minneapolis protests over a fatal ICE shooting drove early market interest, but troops from Alaska's 11th Airborne Division were stood down after de-escalation, leaving probabilities low at 6% by June 30 and 22% by December 31 per trader consensus. No verifiable civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion warranting domestic military deployment under this Posse Comitatus exception has emerged in the past 30 days, anchoring the skepticism. Congressional reform bill S.2070 seeks to impose limits amid 2026 midterm pressures, while potential catalysts like escalating urban unrest, border crises, or election tensions could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,086,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid Minneapolis protests over a fatal ICE shooting drove early market interest, but troops from Alaska's 11th Airborne Division were stood down after de-escalation, leaving probabilities low at 6% by June 30 and 22% by December 31 per trader consensus. No verifiable civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion warranting domestic military deployment under this Posse Comitatus exception has emerged in the past 30 days, anchoring the skepticism. Congressional reform bill S.2070 seeks to impose limits amid 2026 midterm pressures, while potential catalysts like escalating urban unrest, border crises, or election tensions could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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