US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, significantly extending estimated breakout timelines to nine to twelve months according to US intelligence assessments. IAEA reports through mid-2026 indicate limited post-strike changes in enrichment activity and a loss of continuity on uranium stockpiles, while Iran's temporary suspension of cooperation and noncompliance findings have complicated verification. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including indirect US-Iran talks, reflect sustained international pressure through sanctions and monitoring. Trader consensus on no weapon before 2027 aligns with these setbacks, though outcomes could shift if Iran accelerates weaponization decisions, facilities recover undetected, or new escalation disrupts remaining restraints.