US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 that estimate the breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months. IAEA reports confirm a substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent but note no verified weaponization activity and ongoing restrictions on inspector access to damaged facilities. Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have reached deadlock over enrichment limits, with no breakthrough reported as of mid-May. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and diplomatic barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$603,697 交易量
$603,697 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$603,697 交易量
$603,697 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 that estimate the breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months. IAEA reports confirm a substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent but note no verified weaponization activity and ongoing restrictions on inspector access to damaged facilities. Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have reached deadlock over enrichment limits, with no breakthrough reported as of mid-May. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and diplomatic barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$603,697结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 that estimate the breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months. IAEA reports confirm a substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent but note no verified weaponization activity and ongoing restrictions on inspector access to damaged facilities. Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have reached deadlock over enrichment limits, with no breakthrough reported as of mid-May. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and diplomatic barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$603,697结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 that estimate the breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months. IAEA reports confirm a substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent but note no verified weaponization activity and ongoing restrictions on inspector access to damaged facilities. Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have reached deadlock over enrichment limits, with no breakthrough reported as of mid-May. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and diplomatic barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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