Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure, with IAEA reports confirming no visible reconstruction efforts and restricted inspector access beyond limited visits to Bushehr. Ongoing mediated talks with the United States, including proposals reviewed in early November 2026, reflect Iranian willingness to discuss limits on highly enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief, reinforcing trader expectations that weaponization timelines extend beyond 2026. Iran maintains its NPT commitments publicly while facing domestic pressure to reconsider policy. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a rapid breakdown in diplomacy prompting accelerated covert work at fortified sites or undetected diversion of existing material.