Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz and Fordow, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging key facilities. IAEA assessments indicate restricted access and no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment activities, while U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer amid these setbacks. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a subsequent U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirming no nuclear weapons development further constrain near-term weaponization efforts. Trader consensus on the low probability reflects these verified military and diplomatic impacts, though scenarios such as undetected reconstruction, foreign assistance, or policy shifts under new leadership could still alter the timeline before 2027.