Presidential immunity under South Korea’s constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from arrest or prosecution on prior charges except for insurrection or treason, with courts indefinitely suspending multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, and misuse of public funds. No new indictments have been filed since he took office in June 2025, and legislative efforts to alter case handling remain stalled without advancing to impeachment or immunity revocation. These structural barriers, combined with the absence of recent political or judicial catalysts through mid-2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.4% probability for “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
$528,704 交易量
$528,704 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 概率
$528,704 交易量
$528,704 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Presidential immunity under South Korea’s constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from arrest or prosecution on prior charges except for insurrection or treason, with courts indefinitely suspending multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, and misuse of public funds. No new indictments have been filed since he took office in June 2025, and legislative efforts to alter case handling remain stalled without advancing to impeachment or immunity revocation. These structural barriers, combined with the absence of recent political or judicial catalysts through mid-2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.4% probability for “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
交易量
$528,704结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Presidential immunity under South Korea’s constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from arrest or prosecution on prior charges except for insurrection or treason, with courts indefinitely suspending multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, and misuse of public funds. No new indictments have been filed since he took office in June 2025, and legislative efforts to alter case handling remain stalled without advancing to impeachment or immunity revocation. These structural barriers, combined with the absence of recent political or judicial catalysts through mid-2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.4% probability for “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$528,704结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential immunity under South Korea’s constitution protects incumbent Lee Jae-myung from arrest or prosecution on prior charges except for insurrection or treason, with courts indefinitely suspending multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, and misuse of public funds. No new indictments have been filed since he took office in June 2025, and legislative efforts to alter case handling remain stalled without advancing to impeachment or immunity revocation. These structural barriers, combined with the absence of recent political or judicial catalysts through mid-2026, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.4% probability for “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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