Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president, backed by the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, anchors the low 7% implied probability of formal impeachment by December 31, 2026. Elected in the June 2025 snap vote after Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, Lee entered office with a strong mandate and has since prioritized pragmatic governance, North Korea dialogue, and transfer of wartime operational control. The party’s June 2026 local election gains further consolidated legislative alignment, while recent approval-rating declines to 43% stem from housing-tax disputes rather than triggering cross-party consensus or opposition-led proceedings. No active impeachment motions, major scandals, or Constitutional Court triggers have emerged in 2026, and South Korea’s constitutional process—requiring two-thirds assembly support followed by judicial review—remains structurally demanding absent a broad political rupture. Traders thus price continuity through year-end based on institutional stability and the absence of imminent catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
10% 概率
$19,143 交易量
$19,143 交易量
2026-12-31
是
10% 概率
$19,143 交易量
$19,143 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president, backed by the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, anchors the low 7% implied probability of formal impeachment by December 31, 2026. Elected in the June 2025 snap vote after Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, Lee entered office with a strong mandate and has since prioritized pragmatic governance, North Korea dialogue, and transfer of wartime operational control. The party’s June 2026 local election gains further consolidated legislative alignment, while recent approval-rating declines to 43% stem from housing-tax disputes rather than triggering cross-party consensus or opposition-led proceedings. No active impeachment motions, major scandals, or Constitutional Court triggers have emerged in 2026, and South Korea’s constitutional process—requiring two-thirds assembly support followed by judicial review—remains structurally demanding absent a broad political rupture. Traders thus price continuity through year-end based on institutional stability and the absence of imminent catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
交易量
$19,143结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president, backed by the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, anchors the low 7% implied probability of formal impeachment by December 31, 2026. Elected in the June 2025 snap vote after Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, Lee entered office with a strong mandate and has since prioritized pragmatic governance, North Korea dialogue, and transfer of wartime operational control. The party’s June 2026 local election gains further consolidated legislative alignment, while recent approval-rating declines to 43% stem from housing-tax disputes rather than triggering cross-party consensus or opposition-led proceedings. No active impeachment motions, major scandals, or Constitutional Court triggers have emerged in 2026, and South Korea’s constitutional process—requiring two-thirds assembly support followed by judicial review—remains structurally demanding absent a broad political rupture. Traders thus price continuity through year-end based on institutional stability and the absence of imminent catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$19,143结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president, backed by the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, anchors the low 7% implied probability of formal impeachment by December 31, 2026. Elected in the June 2025 snap vote after Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, Lee entered office with a strong mandate and has since prioritized pragmatic governance, North Korea dialogue, and transfer of wartime operational control. The party’s June 2026 local election gains further consolidated legislative alignment, while recent approval-rating declines to 43% stem from housing-tax disputes rather than triggering cross-party consensus or opposition-led proceedings. No active impeachment motions, major scandals, or Constitutional Court triggers have emerged in 2026, and South Korea’s constitutional process—requiring two-thirds assembly support followed by judicial review—remains structurally demanding absent a broad political rupture. Traders thus price continuity through year-end based on institutional stability and the absence of imminent catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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