Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a mild overnight low of 68–71°F in Dallas on October 11 under clear skies and southerly flow, positioning the 70–71°F outcome as the market leader at 51% implied probability. Persistent warm advection ahead of a stronger cold front expected later in the week has limited radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the early-October climatological average near 60°F. Secondary bins around 68–69°F and 72–73°F reflect minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dewpoint trends, while colder outcomes below 65°F carry low probability absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns. Traders are monitoring the next NWS update and high-resolution runs for any adjustments before resolution.