Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum of 43°F in Denver on October 14, 2026, at 10:03 AM MDT, directly supporting the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for the 42–43°F bin. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 38°F amid a cold front that delivered light rain, fog, and a daily maximum of only 48°F—18°F below average. National Weather Service climatological reports provide the authoritative, verifiable data for market resolution, with traders converging on the confirmed reading rather than forecast models. Minor adjustments to station data or alternative measurement protocols remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome, though historical precedent shows such revisions are rare for daily minimum temperatures.