Current short-range forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional ensembles point to a minimum temperature near 13°C for Mexico City on October 5, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and widespread rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Mexico City’s high elevation around 2,240 meters normally allows stronger nighttime drops, but the approaching moisture and light northerly winds suppress that, keeping readings well above the 8°C threshold while also preventing the warmer 18°C+ scenario. Model spread in exact timing of rain bands and boundary-layer mixing creates the near-even trader split between the cold and warm tails, with mid-range outcomes like 13–14°C reflecting the consensus central tendency. Updated runs ahead of the event will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed station data.