Recent forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature in Munich around 11–12°C on October 3, driven by mild Atlantic air, light winds, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This positioning leaves the market nearly balanced between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes because small shifts in cloud thickness, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could alter the low by several degrees. Ensemble spreads from European models highlight genuine uncertainty in exact nocturnal minimums, with drier northerly flow potentially allowing clearer skies and further cooling. Traders are watching the next high-resolution runs and DWD updates for refined guidance ahead of the October 3 resolution window.