Official National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park place the overnight low for October 15 in the mid-50s, with most model runs converging on 55–57°F as partly cloudy skies and southeast winds limit radiative cooling after a mostly sunny day near 63–64°F. Trader consensus clusters on the 54–59°F brackets because small differences in cloud arrival timing, dew-point trends, and urban heat-island effects can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Recent model updates have remained stable, narrowing the range from earlier wider spreads, yet lingering uncertainty over exact wind speeds and shower onset keeps probabilities for 56–57°F and 54–55°F nearly tied.