Recent forecast models from sources like Open-Meteo and national meteorological services show clear skies and northwesterly winds promoting strong radiative cooling overnight in Shanghai, with the minimum temperature expected near 14–15°C. Low dew points around 9–11°C and minimal cloud cover enhance heat loss from the surface, consistent with autumn climatology for the region. Slight model variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds create uncertainty between 15°C and 16°C outcomes, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds. Updated runs ahead of the overnight period will likely narrow this range before resolution.