**Close market odds around 20–22°C reflect genuine uncertainty in Taipei’s precise overnight minimum on October 6 amid a northeast monsoon surge bringing cooler, moist northeasterly flow across northern Taiwan.** Recent observations and model guidance show daytime highs near 23–24°C under cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle, limiting daytime heating and promoting modest overnight radiative cooling. Key variables include the timing of any partial clearing, wind speeds of 10–15 km/h that enhance mixing, and the urban heat-island effect at official stations such as Songshan Airport. Historical October lows average near 23°C, but the current pattern—persistent cloud cover and on-shore flow—favors readings at the lower end of the seasonal range. Updated Central Weather Administration forecasts and real-time station data will resolve the exact minimum before market settlement.