Recent JMA forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 6 indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C under a stable, humid subtropical airmass with highs near 32–35°C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus splitting narrowly between 25°C (47%) and 26°C (41.5%) reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any weak frontal influence that could nudge the overnight low across the threshold. August climatology supports typical lows of 24–26°C, with current conditions showing no strong cooling signals such as clear skies or drier air that would favor sub-24°C readings. Updated model runs and the morning JMA briefing remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine resolution probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月6日东京气温最低？
8月6日东京气温最低？
25°C 47%
26°C 42%
24°C 3%
27°C 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
47%
26°C
42%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C或以上
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 42%
24°C 3%
27°C 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
20°C或以下
$347 交易量
<1%
21°C
$156 交易量
<1%
22°C
$177 交易量
<1%
23°C
$161 交易量
1%
24°C
$179 交易量
3%
25°C
$472 交易量
47%
26°C
$355 交易量
42%
27°C
$243 交易量
1%
28°C
$311 交易量
1%
29°C
$215 交易量
<1%
30°C或以上
$307 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 6 indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C under a stable, humid subtropical airmass with highs near 32–35°C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus splitting narrowly between 25°C (47%) and 26°C (41.5%) reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any weak frontal influence that could nudge the overnight low across the threshold. August climatology supports typical lows of 24–26°C, with current conditions showing no strong cooling signals such as clear skies or drier air that would favor sub-24°C readings. Updated model runs and the morning JMA briefing remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,924结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 6 indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C under a stable, humid subtropical airmass with highs near 32–35°C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus splitting narrowly between 25°C (47%) and 26°C (41.5%) reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any weak frontal influence that could nudge the overnight low across the threshold. August climatology supports typical lows of 24–26°C, with current conditions showing no strong cooling signals such as clear skies or drier air that would favor sub-24°C readings. Updated model runs and the morning JMA briefing remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,924结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent JMA forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 6 indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C under a stable, humid subtropical airmass with highs near 32–35°C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus splitting narrowly between 25°C (47%) and 26°C (41.5%) reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, urban heat retention, and exact timing of any weak frontal influence that could nudge the overnight low across the threshold. August climatology supports typical lows of 24–26°C, with current conditions showing no strong cooling signals such as clear skies or drier air that would favor sub-24°C readings. Updated model runs and the morning JMA briefing remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine resolution probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题