Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and JMA guidance, indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum on October 16 will likely settle between 16–18°C under a mild maritime air mass with light northerly winds and increasing cloud cover. Persistent warmer-than-average October conditions, with prior lows around 17°C amid above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the market's emphasis on 18–19°C outcomes. Limited diurnal cooling from partial cloudiness and weak pressure gradients reduces the chance of sharper drops below 17°C, while model spread leaves modest probability for a 20°C floor if mixing persists longer than expected. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.