Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
少于400万平方公里 57%
400-420万平方公里 13.6%
420万-440万平方公里 12.6%
440万-460万平方公里 8.1%
$48,619 交易量
$48,619 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
57%
400-420万平方公里
14%
420万-440万平方公里
13%
440万-460万平方公里
8%
460万-480万平方公里
6%
480万-500万平方公里
2%
500万平方公里以上
2%
少于400万平方公里 57%
400-420万平方公里 13.6%
420万-440万平方公里 12.6%
440万-460万平方公里 8.1%
$48,619 交易量
$48,619 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$25,113 交易量
57%
400-420万平方公里
$3,465 交易量
14%
420万-440万平方公里
$1,313 交易量
13%
440万-460万平方公里
$1,387 交易量
8%
460万-480万平方公里
$2,948 交易量
6%
480万-500万平方公里
$1,199 交易量
2%
500万平方公里以上
$13,195 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$48,619结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$48,619结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has positioned traders to favor a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57% implied probability. NSIDC data show near-record-low extent persisting into early May, with thin, first-year ice dominating the central Arctic basin and PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, leaving the ice pack highly susceptible to rapid melt under rising air temperatures. An emerging El Niño pattern, per NOAA forecasts, further supports stronger summer warming and reduced ice retention, consistent with historical patterns linking weak winter maxima to lower September minima. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook will deliver updated model consensus, though weather variability introduces ongoing uncertainty in final melt rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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