Montana's 1st Congressional District remains a Republican-leaning seat despite the open nature of the race following incumbent Ryan Zinke's retirement. Republican nominee Aaron Flint, the radio host endorsed by Zinke, benefits from the district's partisan voting index and recent primary results that consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Sam Forstag, a smokejumper who prevailed in a competitive primary, faces structural headwinds in a district Zinke carried by roughly eight points in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Republicans the edge at 59.5 percent while acknowledging national midterm dynamics and potential turnout shifts that keep Democratic chances viable at 41 percent. The race rating from forecasters as likely Republican underscores the baseline advantage for the GOP nominee.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
60%
民主党
41%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$3,522 交易量
60%
民主党
$2,126 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana's 1st Congressional District remains a Republican-leaning seat despite the open nature of the race following incumbent Ryan Zinke's retirement. Republican nominee Aaron Flint, the radio host endorsed by Zinke, benefits from the district's partisan voting index and recent primary results that consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Sam Forstag, a smokejumper who prevailed in a competitive primary, faces structural headwinds in a district Zinke carried by roughly eight points in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Republicans the edge at 59.5 percent while acknowledging national midterm dynamics and potential turnout shifts that keep Democratic chances viable at 41 percent. The race rating from forecasters as likely Republican underscores the baseline advantage for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$5,648结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana's 1st Congressional District remains a Republican-leaning seat despite the open nature of the race following incumbent Ryan Zinke's retirement. Republican nominee Aaron Flint, the radio host endorsed by Zinke, benefits from the district's partisan voting index and recent primary results that consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Sam Forstag, a smokejumper who prevailed in a competitive primary, faces structural headwinds in a district Zinke carried by roughly eight points in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Republicans the edge at 59.5 percent while acknowledging national midterm dynamics and potential turnout shifts that keep Democratic chances viable at 41 percent. The race rating from forecasters as likely Republican underscores the baseline advantage for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,648结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's 1st Congressional District remains a Republican-leaning seat despite the open nature of the race following incumbent Ryan Zinke's retirement. Republican nominee Aaron Flint, the radio host endorsed by Zinke, benefits from the district's partisan voting index and recent primary results that consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Sam Forstag, a smokejumper who prevailed in a competitive primary, faces structural headwinds in a district Zinke carried by roughly eight points in 2024. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Republicans the edge at 59.5 percent while acknowledging national midterm dynamics and potential turnout shifts that keep Democratic chances viable at 41 percent. The race rating from forecasters as likely Republican underscores the baseline advantage for the GOP nominee.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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