The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the Western Conference Finals as the clear market leader at 69 percent implied probability, driven by their status as defending NBA champions, an undefeated 8-0 playoff record through two rounds, and superior depth anchored by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their experience in high-stakes series and consistent regular-season dominance have shaped trader consensus around repeat success. The San Antonio Spurs hold 31.8 percent amid Victor Wembanyama's emergence and a 4-1 regular-season edge over Oklahoma City, including multiple double-digit wins that highlight stylistic mismatches. With Game 1 set for May 18 and both teams healthy, the closely contested nature of the matchup reflects the Spurs' upset potential against a battle-tested Thunder squad.