Incumbent Don Davis holds a lead in the NC-01 race due to stronger recent polling averages, superior third-quarter fundraising of $1.3 million versus Laurie Buckhout’s $933,000, and comparable cash on hand near $2 million each. The district was redrawn in 2025 to add coastal counties and shift its partisan lean toward Republicans, yet Davis has leveraged incumbency through federal infrastructure grants in economically challenged areas. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters recently moved the contest to toss-up status after earlier lean-Republican ratings, reflecting mixed polls—including some showing Davis ahead by 4–8 points and one recent Republican survey with Buckhout narrowly leading. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, has launched television ads and received high-profile Republican support ahead of the November 3 general election.